Poverty levels in Uganda over the last decade up to 2020 remained largely unchanged, despite various government interventions before and during the period, according to the World Bank.
However, there have been drastic changes over the last three years arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia- Ukraine war which affected the poor people most by dropping them deeper into poverty.
The Uganda 2022 Poverty Assessment Overview by the World Bank also shows that the poverty reduction rate over the decade was much slower than in the previous decade.
The national poverty rate ranged between 30 and 35 percent, according to the assessment under the theme: Strengthening Resilience to Accelerate Poverty Reduction in Uganda.
According to Aziz Atamanov, the Senior Economist at the World Bank, the national poverty rate includes assessment of access to essential social services as opposed to income poverty focusing on people’s incomes, which the government estimates at 20 percent.
Dr. Atamanov said only 48 percent of the poorest children from the lower quintile were able to visit health facilities and access medication when ill, compared to 91 percent of children from the richest quintile.
COVID-19 also reversed the structural change whereby more people returned to agriculture employment after their non-farm jobs or businesses were affected.
Numerous shocks not only reduced economic growth, but they also hampered the ability of households to increase their income, says the assessment report launched today.
According to the report, about 30 percent of Ugandans were poor in 2019/20, a percentage only slightly lower than 31 percent in 2012/13.
The poverty rate used in the World Bank study is based on revisions made to the poverty line by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics in 2021.
Joseph Enyimu, Acting Commissioner at the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development, described these revisions as expanding the scope of Uganda’s poverty measurements to cater to the cost of living in the country “within the context of modernizing societal aspirations and rising standards of living.”
The impact of the shocks has varied with 40 percent of rural and 30 percent of urban households experiencing at least one since 2013. About 90 percent of farmers report that climate conditions have grown worse for agriculture over the last decade.
Mukami Kariuki, the World Bank Country Manager says the two groups also respond differently to shocks with the poor “more likely to use detrimental coping strategies, such as reducing food consumption, which could have negative consequences for their human capital in the long run.”
She says that as a result, at least 50 percent of Ugandans remain vulnerable to the risk of falling back into poverty in the next two years.
The report calls for a two-pronged approach to poverty reduction, including raising productivity and income-earning opportunities by investing in the development of human capital, as well as targeting lagging regions and the country’s most vulnerable groups.
The other solution is to strengthen household resilience both by addressing deficiencies left in human capital and by expanding safety nets for both Ugandans and refugees to lessen their vulnerability at the household level.
Japhet Aritho, the General Manager of Airtel Mobile Commerce Uganda said their services are hampered by the high costs of operations which are transferred to customers.
“The cost of running a telecom network is huge especially since most sights run on diesel. When we move to green energy, the costs will come down and this will mean more access for more Ugandans.”
Bank of Uganda Deputy Governor, Dr Michael Atingi-Ego expressed worry that there is a big percentage of Ugandans around the poverty line, the reason the poverty levels shoot up whenever there is a shock.
Atingi-Ego says Covid-19 showed how vulnerable Uganda’s populations are to poverty as many people who lost jobs also lost livelihoods.
This was majorly in the urban areas where inequality rose sharply when the economy went under lockdown.
According to Atingi-Ego, many left the cities and went back to engage in agriculture, the reason why agriculture thrived and there was increased consumption.
This, however, also shows how the move from agricultural jobs to non-farm jobs can be reversed in a short time when there is a shock.
He insisted it was time for the government to focus investment on irrigation farming as dependence on rain-fed agriculture means people and growth rely on nature.
Atingi-Ego said there must increase in investments in irrigation. 1.5 percent of irrigable land is utilized. If it was increased to 15 percent, agricultural output would even surpass the desired levels.
The study also examined telecommunication services, as an enabler in poverty eradication and the increase in people’s incomes.
Irene Sewankambo, the Executive Director, of Uganda Communications Commission said while Uganda has a good mobile phone penetration at 52 percent, it is not true that more than half of Ugandans own phones, because there are many who own multiple lines.
She added that even those with phones hardly know how to fully operate all their features and functions.
Margaret Kakande, the head Budget Monitoring and Accountability Unit at the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development said the major problem facing poverty eradication was the failure to ensure good management of public resources.
Comparing public projects executed today and those in the previous government, Katende said the people have not been given value for money.
She added that after all the resources that have been sunk into school construction over time, the country should be having enough of them.
She also warned that the government’s Parish Development Model could miss its targets because everyone is focusing on only one pillar of the model; giving out capital.
If all its pillars were implemented, it is a good model, she said, adding that Ugandans know what they want but only need help.
Dr. Julius Byaruhanga, the head of policy at the Private Sector Foundation Uganda, said the PDM was being mishandled despite its good intentions.
He also urged the government and project implementers to focus their message on the people, especially farmers, when it comes to what crops to grow for the prevailing market.
Thangavel Palanivel, Senior Economist at UNDP urged the country not only to focus on income poverty, which government puts at about 20 percent when about one-third of Uganda cannot access basic essential services like clean water, health, and education.
